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Financial Times FT.com

Why saving the world economy should be affordable

By Martin Wolf

Published: March 17 2009 19:57 | Last updated: March 17 2009 = 19:57

Can we afford this crisis? Will governments destroy their solvency, = as they=20 use their balance sheets to rescue over-indebted private sectors?

The debate, as it has so often been, is between the US and Germany. = Thus, in=20 a speech last week, Tim Geithner, US Treasury secretary, noted=20 that, =E2=80=9CThe IMF has called for countries to put in place fiscal = stimulus of 2 per=20 cent of aggregate GDP each year by 2009-10. This is a reasonable = benchmark to=20 guide each of our individual efforts. We think the G20 should ask the = IMF to=20 report on countries=E2=80=99 stimulus efforts scaled against the = relative shortfall in=20 growth rates.=E2=80=9D Needless to say, no such firm pledge was = forthcoming, with=20 Germany particularly resistant.

Nevertheless, a great deal of fiscal stimulus has occurred. This is = what=20 readers of recent research on the aftermath of financial crises by = Carmen=20 Reinhart of the University of Maryland and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard = would=20 expect. These authors concluded from studying 13 big financial crises = that the=20 average rise in real public debt in the three years following a banking = crisis=20 was 86 per cent. In some of these cases, the increase was more than 150 = per=20 cent*.

So, is there good reason to expect huge increases in public sector=20 indebtedness across the globe, not least in triple A rated sovereign = borrowers ?=20 The answer is: yes. If so, does this guarantee defaults of some kind? = The answer=20 is: no. In a recent paper, the staff of the International Monetary Fund = suggest=20 why these are the right answers**.

By 2012, suggests the IMF, the ratio of gross public debt to gross = domestic=20 product could be 117 per cent in Italy; 97 per cent in the US; 80 per = cent in=20 France; 79 per cent in Germany; and 75 per cent in the UK. In Japan, = still=20 scarred by the legacy of a huge bubble, the ratio could hit 224 per = cent.=20 Current forecasts are evidently much higher than those made before the = crisis=20 hit.

Yet the jumps in indebtedness are not particularly onerous, provided = the=20 willingness of governments to avoid default is not in question. Assume, = for=20 example, that the real interest rate these highly rated countries pay is = 1=20 percentage point higher than the long-term growth rate of their = economies. Then=20 the requirement for stabilising a ratio of public debt to GDP at 100 per = cent is=20 a primary budget surplus (surplus before interest) of just 1 per cent of = GDP.

Nevertheless, three counter-arguments can be advanced.

First, in some cases, primary fiscal deficits are very large. Among = bigger=20 advanced countries, this is particularly true for this year =E2=80=93 in = the US,=20 forecast at minus 9.9 per cent of GDP; Japan and the UK, both forecast = at minus=20 5.6 per cent; and Spain, forecast at minus 4.9 per cent. The primary = deficits of=20 France, Germany and Italy are far smaller, at minus 3.6 per cent; minus = 1.1 per=20 cent; and plus 1.1 per cent, respectively. So stabilising debt requires = large=20 fiscal adjustment in some countries.

Second, the political willingness to curb deficits, by raising taxes = or=20 cutting spending, may come into question. This could become a = self-fulfilling=20 prophecy, with flight from debt raising interest rates, necessitating = ever more=20 costly (and so less plausible) fiscal tightening.

Third, the ultimate rise in indebtedness could be far bigger than the = IMF=20 forecasts. This would be consistent with experience. The primary = explanation=20 would be that the world economy is embarked on a prolonged balance-sheet = deflation, comparable to Japan=E2=80=99s in the 1990s.

I would argue against these points.

First, markets are optimistic about the fiscal prospects: expected = inflation=20 remains well contained in the US and UK and interest rates on = conventional=20 10-year US and UK government bonds are still below 3 per cent.

Second, the cost of meeting the added burden of ageing is far higher = than any=20 plausible cost of the crisis. On IMF forecasts, the present value of the = fiscal=20 costs of ageing in the US is 15 times the cost of the crisis.

Third, it makes no sense to avoid action that would greatly lower the = real=20 economic costs of the crisis now, to eliminate a hypothetical and = avoidable=20 fiscal crisis later on. This would be like committing suicide in order = to stop=20 worrying about death.

Nevertheless, it is wise to limit longer-term fiscal risks. The most=20 important actions are to curb long-term age-related spending. But there = is also=20 a current agenda: rebalancing of world demand.

Surplus countries subcontract to their trading partners the job of = spending=20 oneself into bankruptcy, while lecturing the latter on their profligacy. = Thus=20 the reason the US, the UK and Spain have huge fiscal deficits is that = they are=20 offsetting the collapse of private spending at home and the export of = demand=20 abroad. This is unsustainable, in the long run.

The danger now is that the surplus countries expect recovery to come = from=20 enormous and sustained fiscal expansion in deficit countries. Some = analysts=20 argue that the US should have refused to take fiscal action at all, = leaving it=20 to surplus countries. Unfortunately, that would have meant a global = depression.=20 Nevertheless, without rebalancing there can be no healthy recovery. On = this=20 point, the US is right and Germany is wrong.

3D""=20 =

*The Aftermath of Financial Crises, January 2009, http://www.nber.org/

**The State of Public Finances, March 2009, http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm

martin.wolf@ft.com

More columns at www.ft.com/wolf

"FT" and "Financial = Times" are=20 trademarks of the Financial Times. Privacy=20 policy | Terms
=C2=A9 Copyright The Financial=20 Times Ltd 2009.

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targetDiv;var position=3Dpos;var = type=3Dpos;var fetched=3Dfalse;var rendered=3Dfalse;var = initialLength=3D0;var renderImmediately=3Dfalse;var = showPreload=3Dfalse;var showCaption=3Dfalse;var = showPlaceholderOnError=3Dfalse;var displayIfOutsized=3Dfalse;var = fetchable=3Dtrue;var renderable=3Dtrue;var hintWidth=3Dnull;var = hintHeight=3Dnull;var id=3Dnull;var name=3Dnull;var flightId=3Dnull;var = trueWidth=3Dnull;var trueHeight=3Dnull;var allParams=3Dnull;var = isExist=3Dfalse;this.adHTML=3D"";var = isLegacy=3D(arguments.length>1)?true:false;function = setDisplayDefaults(_renderImmediately,_showPreload,_showCaption,_showPlac= eholderOnError,_displayIfOutsized){renderImmediately=3D_renderImmediately= ;showPreload=3D_showPreload;showCaption=3D_showCaption;showPlaceholderOnE= rror=3D_showPlaceholderOnError;displayIfOutsized=3D_displayIfOutsized;}=0A= function = setDimensionHints(_hintWidth,_hintHeight){hintWidth=3D_hintWidth;hintHeig= ht=3D_hintHeight;}=0A= this.init=3Dfunction(){sourceDiv=3DAD_CONTAINER_PREFIX+position;targetDiv= =3DAD_PLACEHOLDER_PREFIX+position;if(!thisPage.delayAdRender||this.getRen= derImmediately()){clientAds.fetch(this.getPosition());this.setRendered(tr= ue);}else{clientAds.renderPlaceholder(this);}}=0A= this.getAdHTML=3Dfunction(){var adHTML=3D'';var style=3D"";var = pos=3Dtype;var adStyle=3Dstyle?"¶ms.styles=3D"+style:'';var = adWrap=3Dwrap!=3D''?'&wrap=3D'+wrap:'';if(typeof = leaderserved=3D=3D=3D'undefined'){leaderserved=3D'';}=0A= var = leaderServed=3Dleaderserved!=3D''?'&leaderserved=3D'+leaderserved:'';var = siteName=3D'ftcom';if(thisPage.ftsite=3D=3D'yahoo1'){if(pos=3D=3D'banlb'|= |pos=3D=3D'mpusky'){siteName=3DthisPage.ftsite;}}=0A= var = assRef=3D"&asset=3D"+thisPage.asset+"&referrer=3D"+document.referrer;allP= arams=3D"site=3D"+siteName+"&pos=3D"+pos+thisPage.alladparams+adWrap+lead= erServed+thisPage.revScience+adStyle+assRef;var = 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element=3Ddocument.createElement(tag);var = attributeMap=3D{"for":["htmlFor"],"colspan":["colSpan"]}=0A= for(var i in attributes)=0A= {if(i=3D=3D"className"||i=3D=3D"class")=0A= {element.className=3Dattributes[i];}=0A= else if(document.all&&attributeMap[i])=0A= {for(var = j=3D0;j2&&childre= n){this.addChild(element,children);};if(parent){this.addChild(parent,elem= ent);}=0A= return(ElementObjectInstance)?new = ElementObject(element):element;};Element_class.prototype.addChild=3Dfunct= ion(el,child){el=3Dthis.get(el);if(!this.isArray(child)){child=3D[child]}=0A= for(var i=3D0;i=3Dnum){return = result[num]}=0A= else{return null;}}=0A= return result;}=0A= var WHITESPACE=3D/\s*([\s>+~(),]|^|$)\s*/g;var = IMPLIED_ALL=3D/([\s>+~,]|[^(]\+|^)([#.:@])/g;var = STANDARD_SELECT=3D/^[^\s>+~]/;var = STREAM=3D/[\s#.:>+~[\]()@!]|[^\s#.:>+~[\]()@!]+/g;function = toStream(selector){var = stream=3Dselector.replace(WHITESPACE,'$1').replace(IMPLIED_ALL,'$1*$2');i= f(STANDARD_SELECT.test(stream))stream=3D' 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e=3Dthis._addDOMEvent(inputs.type,listener,inputs.element);}=0A= else{var e=3Dthis._addCustomEvent(inputs.type,listener);}=0A= this.events.push(e);return = e;};EventManager.prototype._isDomEventType=3Dfunction(type){if(null=3D=3D= DOMEventSource.prototype._getBrowserEventName.apply({type:type})){return = false;}=0A= return = true;};EventManager.prototype._addDOMEvent=3Dfunction(type,listener,eleme= nt){var e=3Dnew = DOMEventSource(type);if(listener.handler){e.addListener(listener);}=0A= if(element){e.addElement(element);}=0A= return = e;};EventManager.prototype._addCustomEvent=3Dfunction(type,listener){var = e=3Dnew EventSource(type);if(listener.handler){e.addListener(listener);}=0A= return e;};EventManager.prototype.remove=3Dfunction(e,listener){if(e = instanceof = EventSource){if(undefined=3D=3Dlistener){e.removeAll();}else{e.removeList= ener(listener);}=0A= for(var = i=3D0;ifinishTime){opacity=3DfinishOpacity;}=0A= Element.setOpacity(el,opacity);el._faderOpacity=3Dopacity;if(opacity=3D=3D= finishOpacity){this.clearFadeTimeouts(el);if(removeFromDOM){this.clearFad= eProperties(el);Element.remove(el);}=0A= fadeComplete.fire(el);}};Fader.prototype.clearFadeProperties=3Dfunction(e= l){try{delete el._faderOpacity;delete el._faderTimeouts;}=0A= catch(e){}};Fader.prototype.getTweenIn=3Dfunction(value,stop){return(1-Ma= th.cos((value/stop)*Math.PI))/2*stop;};Fader.prototype.getTweenOut=3Dfunc= tion(value,stop){return = stop-this.getTweenIn(value,stop);};Fader.prototype.clearFadeTimeouts=3Dfu= nction(el){if(el._faderTimeouts){for(var = i=3D0;i');oIframe=3Ddocument.getElementById(sHiderID);_SetPos(oIframe,oLayer);}= else if(bResize){_SetPos(oIframe,oLayer);}=0A= return oIframe;};function = _SetPos(oIframe,oLayer){oIframe.style.width=3DoLayer.offsetWidth+"px";oIf= rame.style.height=3DoLayer.offsetHeight+"px";oIframe.style.left=3DoLayer.= offsetLeft+"px";oIframe.style.top=3DoLayer.offsetTop+"px";};function = _GetObj(vObj){var = oObj=3Dnull;switch(typeof(vObj)){case"object":oObj=3DvObj;break;case"stri= ng":oObj=3Ddocument.getElementById(vObj);break;}=0A= return oObj;};function = _Setup(){_bIE55=3D(typeof(document.body.contentEditable)!=3D"undefined");= _bIE6=3D(typeof(document.compatMode)!=3D"undefined");if(!_bIE55){if(docum= ent.styleSheets.length=3D=3D0)=0A= document.createStyleSheet();var = oSheet=3Ddocument.styleSheets[0];oSheet.addRule(".WCHhider","visibility:v= isible");_oRule=3DoSheet.rules(oSheet.rules.length-1);}=0A= _bSetup=3Dfalse;};};var WCH=3Dnew WCH_Constructor();function = MouseHover(){this.eventManager=3Dnew EventManager();this.fader=3Dnew = Fader();};MouseHover.prototype.CSS_MOUSE_HOVER=3D"mouseHover";MouseHover.= prototype.CSS_CONTENT=3D"mouseHoverContent";MouseHover.prototype.CSS_HIDD= EN=3D"wsodHidden";MouseHover.prototype.SHOW_EVENT=3D"mouseHoverShow";Mous= eHover.prototype.HIDE_DELAY=3D150;MouseHover.prototype.MARGIN=3D10;MouseH= 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