A Natural Experiment from The Price is Right
by
Rafael Tenorio
DePaul University,
Jeffrey Bacidore
NYSE International Research
Robert Battalio
University of Notre Dame,
and
Todd Milbourn
Washington University
Abstract
The Wheel is a sequential game of perfect information played twice during each taping of the television game show The Price is Right. This game has simple rules and the stakes are high. We derive the Unique Subgame Perfect Nash Equilibrium (USPNE) for The Wheel and test its predictive ability using data from a sample of actual plays from the show. We find contestants frequently deviate from the USPNE. Using the concept of Quantal Response Equilibrium (QRE) we find contestants are less likely to use their subgame perfect strategies when the cost of deviating is relatively low. We also address other strategic issues of this game within QRE framework