Analyzing Sequential Game Equilibrium:

A Natural Experiment from The Price is Right

by

Rafael Tenorio

DePaul University,

Jeffrey Bacidore

NYSE International Research

Robert Battalio

University of Notre Dame,

and

Todd Milbourn

Washington University
 
 

Abstract

The Wheel is a sequential game of perfect information played twice during each taping of the television game show The Price is Right. This game has simple rules and the stakes are high. We derive the Unique Subgame Perfect Nash Equilibrium (USPNE) for The Wheel and test its predictive ability using data from a sample of actual plays from the show. We find contestants frequently deviate from the USPNE. Using the concept of Quantal Response Equilibrium (QRE) we find contestants are less likely to use their subgame perfect strategies when the cost of deviating is relatively low. We also address other strategic issues of this game within QRE framework